Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Market Feeling Heavy

Metals, healthcare and oil got a good beating today. Major indices were all moving lower, but the longer term view is still bullish. We are staying at overbought levels, but no real movement in the last 2-3 weeks for indices.

Apparently everybody is waiting for Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole this Friday. I'm expecting lots of volatility that day, but wouldn't put any money on the direction the market will choose.

Monday, February 8, 2016

What Now?

Indeed, what now? Your guess is as good as mine. 1830 was good support today, but with European indices making new lows, I wouldn't bet the farm on this late day bounce we got. As long as 1800-1830 holds as support, we're good. But the more we touch this area, the weaker it will get. Watch out  below, 1650-1700 is next. Here a 4h-candle chart showing the fake 1910-breakout last week. 1875 is first resistance (last week support).


Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Constructive

Many are linking indices to the price of oil. So far, I guess those people are right. The action is similar and prices are finding support exactly where they shoud. See chart below, nice bounce on that trendline!


Thursday, January 21, 2016

Bottom Or Not?

After a +10% decline in the S&P-index, most people are anxious to know if the bottom is in or not. Short term, the market is due for a bounce. A dead cat bounce? Who knows... 1800 is a very important support. If that breaks, look for 1500-1600 next. If we go higher from here, 2000 is the big resistance everybody will be watching. Here a 4h-chart, take a good look at recent volumes. Lots of people trading for a bounce here imho.



Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Small Caps: Is The Party Over?

For the Dow and S&P500, the damage today's pullback caused, seems limited. Both indices are trading close below their recent (all-time) highs, so no harm done. For tech (Nasdaq) it's a different story. Last weeks new high looks like a fake breakout at this stage. But the most bearish looking chart is for small caps, the Russell 2000. Trading under the lows from last week, this starts to look more and more like a (short-term) trend change.

In the mean time, oil, gold and the euro were trading higher. Just in case you were wondering where the money is shifting to.


Thursday, April 30, 2015

Day 2

This was the second day in a row that indices dropped considerably. If this is day 2 of a pullback, it's best to have some more patience before taking on longs. Good support near 2030 in S&P, about 2% lower from here on. That would be a good area to try some starter positions. Next support is under 2000.


Monday, April 20, 2015

No Man's Land

After the big drop last Friday, major indices fought back today and regained most of lost ground. We're going sideways for two months now, with most major indices making lower highs and higher lows. Interesting to see how this will resolve, many are waiting for this wedge to break to either side.

In the mean time, small caps (Russell 2000) are making higher highs and higher lows, diverging from the other indices. This could be a bullish tell, but then Mr Market needs to confirm soon.

Thursday, March 26, 2015

Support Holds

After three days of pullback, most major indices are back at recent lows, but all closed above. Small caps are outperforming the last couple of weeks and are still well above their March lows. When today's lows break, January lows come into the picture. They should be the next support level to watch out for if/when that happens.


Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Fed Talk

Wow, big moves today after the Fed Talk. The rate didn't change and expectations for a rate hike lowered. Big moves on that news; major indices moved >1%, precious metals gained over 2%. But the bigger moves (or rather bounces from oversold levels) were for oil (almost +5%) and several currencies (even moves of +4% for the euro).

Some divergence that could be a future tell: small caps are making new highs today, while all other major indices are still 1-2% below their recent highs.


The futures chart at the close today:


Monday, March 2, 2015

New Highs

The major indices all touched new highs today. Or almost anyway, the S&P came very close. Not much movement up or down in indices lately. On 02/20/15 we had a move of more than 1% in one day, and that's about it for the last two weeks.

It feels like we're closer to a short-term top than a bottom. But beware! These small daily gains, day after day, could hurt a lot when you're putting in trades in the wrong direction. Better maybe to wait for a bigger number, like 2150 for S&P (if we get there) before you try any shorts. Or play this with options, out of the money bear call spreads for example (limited risk and limited profit).