Friday, August 23, 2019

Volatility After China Tariffs (aka: Was There A Jackson Hole Meeting As Well?)

Everyone was waiting for Powell to speak today in Jackson Hole. Would he give investors more hope for another rate cut??

It didn't matter, because the Chinese deceided it was time to give the US some of it's own medicine. China announced it would raise tariffs. TT (tweeting Trump) didn't wait long to react. He ordered US companies to leave China, not giving much hope for a trade war to end soon. The market plunged on the news, leaving the Powell-speech a none event.

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

And Back Down Again

What volatility lately! A day after the big jump on the tariff-related news and we're even lower now.
As long as the US and China haven't met, this volatility is here to stay imo.

Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Trading on Headlines

Today we see a heavy reaction of Mister Market towards another headline about China tariffs (a delay of the 10% tariff on some products)
Energy is also reacting bullish, up 4-5%!

Back to new highs soon? Time will tell :-)

Monday, August 5, 2019

Violent Sell-Off

This is day 4 of a violent sell-off. Looking for a bounce here. Time will tell if this is only a dip or the beginning of a correction.

Monday, July 1, 2019

New Highs...

So risk on it is!

Expect a move to 3000 (S&P500), retest of 2950 and who knows what more to come?
With this POTUS, everything is possible. But as long as we are climbing the wall of worry, no problem.

Update 7/5/19: first target (3000) reached. What's next? 3050 or 2950?

Saturday, January 26, 2019

And Here We Are...

Take a look back at my post from 22 December 2018. The third chart is a monthly chart from the S&P500, regarding the 20MA. We are now coming back up towards that green line, see below.
The question is, will this be another 2011 or 2015 when we didn't stay below the moving average for long (no bear markets)? Or is this another 2000-2001 or 2007-2008 bear market, just getting started?

Time will tell…

Wednesday, December 26, 2018


A picture is worth a thousand words:

Saturday, December 22, 2018

This Time It's Different

"This time it's different!" So they say. You hear and read it a lot, but is that really so?
Let's take a look at the past, here are charts with monthly candlesticks for S&P500 and Nasdaq.

One thing is clear, we won't be making new highs this year! But the chance of a snap back rally is getting bigger by the day. The rubberband is streched harder and harder each day, but we haven't seen a really big panic wash out. I'm talking 7-10% down in one day. So far -4.4% (on a closing basis) was the 'best' for Nasdaq, back in October.

Now let's compare this recent top to the previous ones, and for that purpose I'm only going to post the monthly chart of the S&P. You can clearly see the double top we made in the years 2000 - 2007.

That green line represents a 20 month moving average which is rarely broken in bull markets, just a couple of occasions. We are now at the point that we broke that MA on the downside. When we take a look at the past, there is a big chance we will bounce back towards that line. The big question is, when? Probably January, but who's to say? If we get back to that line, sellers will come in again to push us to new lows. Unless it's different this time... :-)

I would also like to post a chart from alphatrends, to show you how ferocious rallies can be in a bear market, so here is the chart from the SPY in 2008. Above a table with the rallies and below are the dips/crashes. This speaks for itself I think. So don't think because we move up 10% or more, that we are out of the woods…

Trade carefully here, sitting on your hands and wait for better times is probably the best strategy, especially for new traders. And from time to time, zoom out to see the bigger picture. It helps so see what might come next.

Friday, December 21, 2018

Blood In The Streets

What a bloodbath on Wall Street, indices down 15%-20% or even more (small caps...) since the high of the year. Here some weekly and monthly charts. A rip higher is waiting round the corner, but seems like we'll get more fresh new lows first. By the way, those montly candles are not closed yet of course, but just indicating how much we lost in a couple of months, much of 2017 gains are gone now.

And please remember, one big rip higher doesn't mean we can't see new lows afterwards. Rallies in bear markets can be ferocious.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Indices and Energy Hurting

Panic and blood on the streets, but too early to buy I think. +5% down on tech, ouch.