Saturday, August 27, 2011

Friday 08/26: Strong intraday reversal

Let's not search for logical explanations in the recent market action... Yesterday we saw the market tank on the news of W. Buffett investing $5 billion in BAC. Today, Bernanke hinted he currently wouldn't/couldn't do much (no QE3?) and yet the market started to rally after his speech. That was after the S&P plunged about 20 points. The rally took us up more than 45 points, close to yesterday's highs where we closed.

On the daily chart, a triangle is forming, which might turn out to be a bearflag. Zooming out some more, the weekly chart presents a rather bearish sight. We see a nice reversal candle, but on lower volume than the previous down candles. However, the 200-day moving average on the weekly charts held, which is a good sign for the bulls. Even if this is a bottom, it can take weeks or even months before we get a next leg up. Just look at May 2010 and you know what I mean. But as long as S&P can't take out the 1210-level, I see no real advantage for the bulls. Anything can happen below this point.

Today, gold (+3%) and silver (+1%) traded with the market and not against it. Oil has the same pattern as the indices, could be a bearflag. The next couple of days will be crucial.

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