Thursday, September 15, 2011

Going higher on lower volume

Today was almost a exact copy of yesterday. Choppy opening and then lower, followed by a trend higher albeit at a slower pace than the previous day. Today tech and small caps were actually lagging the Dow and S&P and they also printed possible hanging men (hammer-like candle after a couple of updays). That may indicate the end of this rally is near.

The rally came after the news that central banks would bring liquidity-providing operations to the markets (see article here). The economic data coming out before and just after the open, was not to bad. The focus was mainly on the jobs data and the Philly Fed number. Both were not meeting expectations, but stocks shrugged off the bad news.

5m-chart of the last 2 days in SPY, you can see momentum is waning a bit.

The next charts are DIA and QQQ. You can see QQQ (Nasdaq based ETF) clearly leading and breaking out today, but it's still in it's trading range.

I got stopped out of BAL (just above breakeven) and SGG (small profit). The only trade I have left, is an options play on the divergence between GLD (gold ETF) and GDX (goldminers ETF). I entered the trade on 08/23 on the divergence between gold and the goldminers. The goldminers were lagging gold action, so I wrote GLD-calls and bought GDX-calls (both March '12 calls). It's working great so far, already sold half the position and keeping the other half.

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