Thursday, September 29, 2011

Rally or not?

The market seems up nicely at this point (1.5-2%, except for Nasdaq; +1%). But the 'usual suspects', the stocks that normally lead the market, those are not performing. Instead, many beaten down stocks are no rallying. Call it divergence, unlogical or maybe... fake? That's why I stay out of these stocks in these volatile markets. No real leadership is spotted. One day it's stock A and B leading, the next day it's C, D, E and F. But unless they all start moving at the same time with decent volume, I'm not buying it.

I would rather be looking at ETF's (SPY, QQQ, IWM) or leveraged ETF's (TNA, TZA and so on). But most of all, if you don't see an edge, have the patience to wait and sit this one out. Patience and discipline, that's what it is all about in this game.

Edit: and despite positive data coming out today (see below), the only right thing to do was fade the morning gap.
Right now: DIA +1.1%, SPY and IWM +0.4% and QQQ -0.9%. We lost already >1% since the open.

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