Friday, September 30, 2011

Testing support again

We gapped down big and yesterday's support was tested again. As I wrote yesterday, the 114-level (for SPY) is a very important level, a close below and the August lows will soon be reached. We're testing this level for 2 days in a row now. The more time we spend here, the bigger the chance we'll close below and lose the level.
You can easily spot how in morning trading we touch 114 several times (1) and it holds. Then in the afternoon a second test (2) were we dive below a couple of times, on higher volume. You can also note the backtest of the lower trendline of today's trading range (first 4-5 hours), right after the 2nd test of 114.
The third time's the charme or so it seems. The bulls don't give up and we go back above 114 briefly... and down again! Choppy, nervous, volatile, but definitely not for the faint of hearted and exactly the reason why it's probably wiser to stay on the sidelines. 5m-chart for SPY below (look at the huge volume sell-off in the last 15 minutes!):

In my previous post I wrote metals were getting sold, but they soon bounced to trade in range for most of the day. Still, copper and silver are down significantly, as well as oil. Oil cratering under the 80-level again and it looks like it will break down soon. Possible first target on oil is 70.

Daily charts for DIA and QQQ (Nasdaq now also breaking it's range/flag):

No trades today, I remain 100% in cash. I'll be on holiday next week, so no blogposts for the next 10 days or so. Next post will probably be on Monday, the 10th of Octobre. Have a great weekend!

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