Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Resistance holds, but minor support doesn't

In my previous post I already said that morning trading was stuck in a trading range, created by yesterday's strong close. Price formed a wedge (see SPY-chart below) which broke after lunch. The 122-level (the minor support level from the title) first held (it was also the overnight and morning low) but broke about 20 minutes later on big volume. The drop brought us to the 121-level where we closed. Although a nice drop, still no reason to get overly bearish, only a close under 119-119.20 could bring lower prices.

SPY 5m-chart:

Daily charts for DIA, QQQ and SMH:

Precious metals got another beating today; copper and silver were the big losers, gold kept losses small.
Oil also down bigger than indices.

I already posted that I'm long EUO and keeping this position as long as the euro doesn't make no new highs.

When SPY broke the wedge (see chart above), financials broke lower. So I went long FAZ (see chart below), another inverse ETF. It formed a nice intraday base which broke on ok volume. Long 49.26 and took 1/3 profits per 49.96 and 1/3 per 50.95. Got out the last part near the close per 50.92.
The chart shows that price only retreated about 50% from the lows. Financials (XLF for example as general fin. ETF) still look bullish, so not taking any overnight risk. I don't want no big overnight gap against my position, so all out.

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