Monday, October 31, 2011

Is this the (intermediate) top?

We gapped lower at the open, but stayed in a range for most of the day. One failed break lower near lunch time was the first mentionable action we got. After the failed break, the high of the day got retested and held. In the last hour, we went to new lows for the S&P500 and Dow. Later on Nasdaq and Russell2000 followed. The market tanked hard in the last minutes of the session, we're finally seeing some distribution.
5m-chart SPY below in the 'Trades'-section of the post.

Daily charts DIA, QQQ and SMH:

Precious metals performed even worse than indices, oil was down moderately. The euro lost >2% and in the meantime the yen lost big against the dollar when Japan intervened to lower the worth of the yen. The currency is too strong, hurting the Japanese export, hence the intervention.

I tried two trades in SPY today. The break below the morning low near lunch time (failed) and than the break of the diagonal trendline which stopped at the day's high. So two losers (the second out at adjusted stop-loss), I'll let the chart below do the rest of the talking.

The euro tanked hard today and it broke the trendline of the last 4 weeks. So I went long EUO in the last hour, in with a wide stop here.
Anticipating lower stockprices (due to being oversold and also with the euro tanking), I went long a small position in TZA.

SPY (daytrade): short 126.55, out 126.82.
SPY (daytrade): long 127.00, out 126.86.
EUO (swing): long 17.89, SL17.50.
TZA (swing): long 29.80, SL28.50.

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