Monday, November 7, 2011

Volatility = bear market?

They say one feature of a bear market is the huge volatility. And since we recently see that almost every day, I guess we're still in a bear market, right?
Anyway, even pre-market was crazy as hell today. Italy is now the other PIG that's being watched closely. Futures were down about 1.5% overnight, but rallied hard on the news that Berlusconi might resign. But the Italian prime minister denied the rumors and indices dropped once again early in the session. Reversal came little above the overnight lows and it was quite a rally that followed, all the way back to the morning highs.
In the last 10 minutes of trading, we even broke these highs for a strong close.

5m-chart SPY - heavy breakdown (1) and breakout higher (2) today. Both moves too fierce to get in with a good risk/reward. Too bad...

Daily charts for DIA, QQQ and SMH:

Gold, silver and oil rallied well today, disconnecting somewhat from the correlation with the market lately (especially gold is leading). Copper underperforming the other metals.

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