Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Distribution, especially in metals

After some nice early gains in the first half hour, the market cratered lower, losing 1% in one hour.
Reversals in gold and silver were on huge volumes. After some pausing, a second wave of selling started, with silver losing 7.5% and gold down over 4%. Indices, oil, the euro were all dropping, but only about 1% or less.

Still, once more the dip in the indices got bought! But no follow-through and near the end of the session there were new lows for most major indices, the euro and gold (-5%). Only oil was staying green (together with market-darling AAPL).

Lots of big players were selling metals today. Not that I'm implying this is "THE TOP", but this might finally be a short-term end to the rally we've seen since last December.

5m-chart SPY:

Daily charts DIA, SPY, QQQ and IWM:

Metals: as stated before, they sold off hard (gold & silver). They were in need of a correction/pullback, after having a very nice rally from the end of December until now. The candle on gold looks very, very nasty... (see below).
Euro and oil also sold off, but kept losses near 1%. Oil actually kept rallying in the afternoon when the rally in indices stalled. Indices then turned lower while oil build a bullflag.

Daily gold chart, a picture is worth a thousand words...

Articles for tonight:
The Terrarium
The Market Rally: How, Why, What...
The Impact of Bias

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