Thursday, May 17, 2012

More Distribution, But No Real Panic (Yet)

Economic data coming in this morning at 10 AM was very weak. The market reacted with a huge 5-minute drop that was bought instantly.

However, yesterday's low now became resistance and we revisited the morning lows just before lunch time (tech and small caps even printed new lows). They held only momentarily and soon new lows came.
The bulls tried to lift price, but were unsuccessful. A dead cat bounce was followed by a slow grind lower, just like yesterday.

The last half hour of the session brought new lows, and another bad close for indices. The sell volume on the daily charts indicates more distribution. But with volumes rising, we might finally work towards a (short-term) bottom. It was one of the worst days of the last 2 weeks, still, we're only losing 1.5% on the S&P and little over 2% on tech and small caps. No real panic days (3% or more).

5m-chart SPY:

Daily charts DIA, SPY, QQQ and IWM:

Euro, oil, metals
Commodities finally were showing some strength in pre-market. Silver, gold and oil were up nice, copper only little. Gold and silver kept rising during the session while indices were going lower, even during the faster sell-offs. Oil however traded along with indices/stocks and went back in the red.
The euro is still struggling with the 1.27-level.

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