Monday, May 7, 2012

No Rebound So Far

The outcome of European elections (Greece & France) weren't taken well by financial markets. However, overnight losses of over 2% were recuperated before the opening of the US session.
Only a small gap down was left, which was instantly filled. There was a retest of the morning lows, but the level held and during lunch time the market actually broke higher.

There wasn't much convinction in this rally and shortly after the break, volume failed. So in the afternoon, price reversed and in the close it even got worse. Result: a close near breakeven. Not the best outcome, but markets are still a lot above overnight lows.

Today's candles on the major indices (/futures) remind me somewhat of the ones in the beginning of Octobre 2011.
With two big important differences:
- lack of volume today
- we are now holding support after two months of sideways action that followed a big rally. Back then the candles formed after two months of sideways action, preceded by a big drop...

5m-chart SPY:

Daily charts DIA, SPY, QQQ and IWM:

Euro, oil, metals
Just like futures, the euro opened a lot lower, but was able to get back near Friday's closing levels.
The same goes for metals, but only copper was convincing, it even shot up over 1% in the green.
Oil was still being sold, but from +3% down, it managed to take back most of the losses, closing at $98.

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