Thursday, July 18, 2013

Another Move Higher

After a few days of sideways trading, indices moved higher again. This looks like another short-term rally is starting. We're still at overbought levels, but overbought can stay overbought for a long time.

I think the action in oil predicts we're not done just yet. Everytime indices make a +0.5% move (or something like that), oil makes another +1%-move, leading the market higher. Which in itself is not sustainable. Expensive oil is bad for economy in the long run, hence bad for equities. While indices gained 7-10% in the last 3-4 weeks, oil gained 16% in that same period. Is this 2007 again when oil boomed to $147? And we all know what happened next, as well for oil as for stocks...

5m-chart SPY:

Daily charts DIA, SPY, QQQ and IWM:

Euro, oil, metals
The euro is still closing above/near 1.31 and this latest move has a bullflag-feel to it.
Oil broke out of the range it traded in for the last 5-6 days. It gained almost 1.5% and is trading close to $108.
Metals bounced a bit after yesterday's sea of red. Copper was breakeven, but gold and silver made minor gains.

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