The debt ceiling story is finally over, the Senate passed it and Obama signed it. But we didn't get the effect most people apparantly were expecting (many people on Twitter expected a bounce).
After a rather small gap down, we ran up into resistance, being yesterday's close. From there on, it mostly went down. There was some basing near pre-market lows, but once that broke (half an hour before the vote) the bears were in control.
Bulls gave it three weak shots to stop the bleeding, but to no avail. The last hour downfall was very impressive, about 15 points straight down on the S&P. Indices dived between 2.2% and 2.9%.
So we closed near the lows on major volume. This was the second day in a row that we've seen a huge range on indices.Chances for a bounce are increasing, since most indices are sitting at some sort of support (plus the fact that we've seen about 7 straight down days in a row). Two questions remain, when will the bounce come, and how far up will it get us?
One can say, things have changed recently. We're sitting under the 200 day movering average on the indices, we're printing lower lows and the dips are not bought (yet). Obviously it's too late for shorts here, but a bounce for 2-3 days could bring some nice setups.
Trades
I tried a long in LULU early on, since the stock moved up on good volume, trying to break a 10-day trendline. The trendline actually proved to be resistance once more and I got stopped out on a new low of day.
A little later, the S&P made a new low and I shorted the ES-futures (E-mini S&P500) at 1272.25.
I'm still in the trade after a nice +20-point run, giving it some room here. Bought some SPY-calls at the close in case we turn here.
Edit: one more thing. Despite the huge drop on increasing volume, VIX (the 'fear'-index) didn't go that much higher. Actually, the intraday-highs of the past 2 days exceeded the high for today. This divergence with the market could point to a coming bounce.
Showing posts with label LULU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label LULU. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Saturday, April 9, 2011
Friday: And we're going... down!
This is the 4th consecutive Friday that we get a bearish candlestick. The previous weeks there were 3 inverted hammers (but markets kept going up or sideways) and today we got an engulfing candlestick. Purely coincidence I'm sure, but still, it makes you wonder.
This does not look good for Monday, but a pullback to the 20 and 50MA wouldn't hurt. Oil, silver, gold, euro, heating oil... everything rallied hard while stocks sold off.
Swingtrades
I saw lots of good setups on my charts and entered several small positions. There was a little voice inside my head, screaming that we were still at resistance, but I ignored it. Too bad, many small losses add up and I ended the week in the red, giving up all my previous gains. Oh well, I guess I had to learn the hard way. I have to grow me some patience...
Open trades (most near breakeven, some small profits and some small losses): CDE, MELI, TLM, BIDU, COG, DVN, CRM, MDT, PWRD, SBAC, JKS.
Closed trades: HNR, TCK, RIG, LULU, ALTR, SMH, IO, USG, BGCP, LSI, XXIA and GDP. On average a 2 to 3% loss.
I tried a support-play in SCI that went up little, I got out for a small profit.
Tried some bottom-fishing with SPY-calls, but it just wasn't my day I guess.
Stewie played POT when the stock bounced on the 50MA. I sold partial on the first pop, and got stopped out at breakeven on the remaining shares.
That leaves us with the only positive thing for today, being:
Daytrades
SU was mentioned in the HCPG-newsletter and this time I wouldn't let a trade slip by me. I already missed GS and GDXJ earlier this week, 2 great trades the HCPG-team played perfectly.
In on the bounce just above the 9EMA. I took first part of, just under R2. When the market started turning, I took of some more profit, mainly out of precaution and more when we reached a Fibonacci-level (not depicted). Last part I took on the spike up with volume. Price retraced but found support at the 20EMA and turned up again, without me though. The SU-chart (5m as usual):
This was a good gain, but a cold comfort, compaired with the losses today. Next week will have to be better. I was doing very well the last 2 weeks untill today. I won't afford myself to do more stupid mistakes like these...
This does not look good for Monday, but a pullback to the 20 and 50MA wouldn't hurt. Oil, silver, gold, euro, heating oil... everything rallied hard while stocks sold off.
Swingtrades
I saw lots of good setups on my charts and entered several small positions. There was a little voice inside my head, screaming that we were still at resistance, but I ignored it. Too bad, many small losses add up and I ended the week in the red, giving up all my previous gains. Oh well, I guess I had to learn the hard way. I have to grow me some patience...
Open trades (most near breakeven, some small profits and some small losses): CDE, MELI, TLM, BIDU, COG, DVN, CRM, MDT, PWRD, SBAC, JKS.
Closed trades: HNR, TCK, RIG, LULU, ALTR, SMH, IO, USG, BGCP, LSI, XXIA and GDP. On average a 2 to 3% loss.
I tried a support-play in SCI that went up little, I got out for a small profit.
Tried some bottom-fishing with SPY-calls, but it just wasn't my day I guess.
Stewie played POT when the stock bounced on the 50MA. I sold partial on the first pop, and got stopped out at breakeven on the remaining shares.
That leaves us with the only positive thing for today, being:
Daytrades
SU was mentioned in the HCPG-newsletter and this time I wouldn't let a trade slip by me. I already missed GS and GDXJ earlier this week, 2 great trades the HCPG-team played perfectly.
In on the bounce just above the 9EMA. I took first part of, just under R2. When the market started turning, I took of some more profit, mainly out of precaution and more when we reached a Fibonacci-level (not depicted). Last part I took on the spike up with volume. Price retraced but found support at the 20EMA and turned up again, without me though. The SU-chart (5m as usual):
This was a good gain, but a cold comfort, compaired with the losses today. Next week will have to be better. I was doing very well the last 2 weeks untill today. I won't afford myself to do more stupid mistakes like these...
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Higher or lower?
The markets just can't figure out which way we'll go next. So sit and wait is the best option. I sold most swing trades today, some a bit late, giving back some gains. But all in all a nice profitable day.
Gold and silver held strong. The Euro gained once more at the expense of the dollar and is now over 1.43.
Swingtrades
Closed trades:
SDS long 20.81, sold 20.52 (-1.46%)
OCZ from last Friday @8, sold last part 8.75, average 8.565 (+7.06%)
BX long 18.30, sold 18.87 average (+3.11%)
TLT long 92.28, out 91.40 (-0.97%)
SLW long 45.17, sold 46.18 average (+2.24%)
LULU long 91.12, sold 93.89 average (+3.04%)
NXPI long 31.37, sold 32.91 average (+4.90%)
NUE long 47.11, sold 47.62 (+1.05%)
TSO long 28.02, out 27.98 (-0.19%)
LEAP long 15.69, sold 15.77 average (+0.52%)
PPG long 96.76, out 96.24 (-0.57%)
HMIN long 42.45, sold 42.77 (+0.71%)
GES short 39.95, covered 38.99 average (+2.41%)
FFIV short 93.36, covered 93.75 (-0.46%)
EBIX short 23.76, covered 22.67 average (+4.60%)
MENT short 14.49, covered 14.45 (+0.21%)
One from Stewie: long JDSU 20.01, stopped out 19.50 (stock clearly rejected by the 20MA on the daily)
Open trades
Still long BGCP and SCI
MERC long 14.525 (bounced on 5EMA daily chart), took some profit near 14.90. Raised SL to 14.55 (from 14.30)
MPEL (Stewie) long 8.10 SL7.70
N long 29.24 SL28.50. Stock bounced nicely on 50MA. First target 30, then hoping for a breakout.
Daytrades
A bought some SPY-calls after it bounced, but I was watching the hourly chart at the moment. Price didn't rally hard and I sold near the close for a small gain.
First daytrade: BRCM. It was a big gap up and the stock went thru 20MA- and 200MA-resistance. In hindsight, my entry looks like crap! The stock bounced just over the 9EMA. It didn't really get a bid and fell thru my (slightly raised) stop-loss.
Second and third trade were in FNSR. The first one was a beauty, the second was a rather late entry, just before the market turned (and so did FNSR) and I got stopped out on that one.
The first trade was after a slight pullback. Price shot towards and right thru 26 and stalled @26.52. I took partials near, the whole number 26, @R3 and @26.40. Last part stopped out but when price bounced on the 20EMA, I got back in with a less beautiful result.
I noticed today that many big moves actually came from stocks that seem to have formed a bottom on the daily chart. Most market leaders and momentum stocks were less impressive. That doesn't sound like it's positive for the market in general.
Gold and silver held strong. The Euro gained once more at the expense of the dollar and is now over 1.43.
Swingtrades
Closed trades:
SDS long 20.81, sold 20.52 (-1.46%)
OCZ from last Friday @8, sold last part 8.75, average 8.565 (+7.06%)
BX long 18.30, sold 18.87 average (+3.11%)
TLT long 92.28, out 91.40 (-0.97%)
SLW long 45.17, sold 46.18 average (+2.24%)
LULU long 91.12, sold 93.89 average (+3.04%)
NXPI long 31.37, sold 32.91 average (+4.90%)
NUE long 47.11, sold 47.62 (+1.05%)
TSO long 28.02, out 27.98 (-0.19%)
LEAP long 15.69, sold 15.77 average (+0.52%)
PPG long 96.76, out 96.24 (-0.57%)
HMIN long 42.45, sold 42.77 (+0.71%)
GES short 39.95, covered 38.99 average (+2.41%)
FFIV short 93.36, covered 93.75 (-0.46%)
EBIX short 23.76, covered 22.67 average (+4.60%)
MENT short 14.49, covered 14.45 (+0.21%)
One from Stewie: long JDSU 20.01, stopped out 19.50 (stock clearly rejected by the 20MA on the daily)
Open trades
Still long BGCP and SCI
MERC long 14.525 (bounced on 5EMA daily chart), took some profit near 14.90. Raised SL to 14.55 (from 14.30)
MPEL (Stewie) long 8.10 SL7.70
N long 29.24 SL28.50. Stock bounced nicely on 50MA. First target 30, then hoping for a breakout.
Daytrades
A bought some SPY-calls after it bounced, but I was watching the hourly chart at the moment. Price didn't rally hard and I sold near the close for a small gain.
First daytrade: BRCM. It was a big gap up and the stock went thru 20MA- and 200MA-resistance. In hindsight, my entry looks like crap! The stock bounced just over the 9EMA. It didn't really get a bid and fell thru my (slightly raised) stop-loss.
Second and third trade were in FNSR. The first one was a beauty, the second was a rather late entry, just before the market turned (and so did FNSR) and I got stopped out on that one.
The first trade was after a slight pullback. Price shot towards and right thru 26 and stalled @26.52. I took partials near, the whole number 26, @R3 and @26.40. Last part stopped out but when price bounced on the 20EMA, I got back in with a less beautiful result.
I noticed today that many big moves actually came from stocks that seem to have formed a bottom on the daily chart. Most market leaders and momentum stocks were less impressive. That doesn't sound like it's positive for the market in general.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
What dip?
Markets are trading above pre-earthquake/tsunami levels since a couple of days. The Dow leads the way, followed by the S&P and only the Nasdaq lagging somewhat. The day started with a dip, but soon the reversal came and the only way was up. All indices found support on one or more moving averages and bounced nicely.
Commodities led the rally, with oil doing very well. Rare earth elements had a very good day, up big in pre-market and only going higher from there on. Gold and silver consolidated, they might get ready for another rip higher.
Daytrades
One trade today, LULU. Not the best setup but I took it because I was expecting some follow-thru after the big rally yesterday. In after the bounce of the 9EMA, but the stock first needed some more consolidation. This got me worried somewhat, which resulted in an early partial sell. It still was a decent win, but should have been more without the 'panic-attack'. I took further partial profit at the ORH-level, which was also unnecessary, since volume came in big which was an indication of higher prices to come.
Last partials at the Fib-level (123,6 instead of 138, I will remove that level. Yesterday I said to use 138...) and near the brake of the 9EMA. LULU took out the 89-level later in the day. Maybe I should always keep a small part (with stop above BE) for a possible end-of-day rally.
I was also looking for an entry in SLB, which would be ideal after a bounce on the 9EMA and the break of the high of the previous bar. However, while entering my order, price shot up fast and I didn't want to chase it. Too bad, because the stock was a very nice winner in a leading sector.
Commodities led the rally, with oil doing very well. Rare earth elements had a very good day, up big in pre-market and only going higher from there on. Gold and silver consolidated, they might get ready for another rip higher.
Daytrades
One trade today, LULU. Not the best setup but I took it because I was expecting some follow-thru after the big rally yesterday. In after the bounce of the 9EMA, but the stock first needed some more consolidation. This got me worried somewhat, which resulted in an early partial sell. It still was a decent win, but should have been more without the 'panic-attack'. I took further partial profit at the ORH-level, which was also unnecessary, since volume came in big which was an indication of higher prices to come.
Last partials at the Fib-level (123,6 instead of 138, I will remove that level. Yesterday I said to use 138...) and near the brake of the 9EMA. LULU took out the 89-level later in the day. Maybe I should always keep a small part (with stop above BE) for a possible end-of-day rally.
I was also looking for an entry in SLB, which would be ideal after a bounce on the 9EMA and the break of the high of the previous bar. However, while entering my order, price shot up fast and I didn't want to chase it. Too bad, because the stock was a very nice winner in a leading sector.
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