Friday, March 25, 2011

Thursday: markets up, bulls gaining strength

Markets gapped up a little bit, went down to bounce on yesterday's close and then rallied again. The Dow and S&P both overcame their 20- and 50MA's, the Nasdaq is still trailing but closed well on somewhat higher volume than the past days (which cannot be said from Dow and S&P).

Markets are putting in a nice V-shape here, so this could be the beginning of a new rally. But therefor the markets need to consolidate for a couple of days and then go higher on some more convincing volume. We're not there yet...

Crude oil is resting near it's intermediate high and could be double topping here. Although not likely, with the problems going on in Libya.

Gold and silver made new highs but then reversed sharply intraday. The euro shot back up towards the 1.42-spot.

Stewie took on 3 swingtrades (AKAM, PCX and RAX) in the late afternoon, I followed on all 3 and we're holding overnight.

The first daytrade was ROK. In on the break of base after price bounced of the 9EMA. I screwed up an order and accidentally sold 2/3 of my shares. Luckily with a (small) gain and I even managed to buy some back at the same price I sold them. Price couldn't overcome the daily high from the opening range, I then sold partially at the very top of the inverted hammer. The remaining part got stopped out. Without the messed up order, this would have been a good trade, although this setup is not ideal at all.

And same thing can be said from the trade I took in IMAX. Even worse actually. Again I picked out a stock that shot up fast in the opening minutes. First of all, such a violent spike needs consolidation before it can move up again and that takes time, but time wasn't on my side. Secondly, when I bought the stock, the S&P ran into resistance at the 1310-level. Better is not to take that risk and refuse the trade...
I got in on the break of 30, where volume came in. Sadly, there was no follow-thru and suddenly the stock reversed sharply, falling throug my stoploss (some slippage but not to bad) in a matter of seconds.

EBIX was a knife-catch (bottom-picking a stock that's falling fast, up to 5-10% or even more).
The stock fell down >20% on fraud allegations. I went in when price seemed to bounce back from the same level just under 23 (apart from one fake move below). I quickly sold as soon as price shot back up to the 24-level. Small position but not a bad gain. I'm not proud of this trade, it's more like buying a lottery-ticket, I just got lucky here (although I didn't win the jackpot). Here the 1-minute timeframe, all developed in a matter of minutes as you can see. I promised myself not to do this again.

Miss of the day (not talking about female beauty here, sorry guys): HMY. It had some nice follow-thru this morning after yesterday's big gains.
I wanted to go in when 2 hammers formed. For some stupid reason I put in a limit order instead of a market order. I didn't want to chase price, but this was just ridiculous, 1 or 2 cents won't make that much of a difference, even on a $14-stock. As depicted below, I missed out on some very nice gains and a good setup, way better than ROK or IMAX (let's not mention EBIX again...)

I also missed BBY, a couple of minutes after my failed trade in IMAX, maybe that's why. Nice breakdown thru base at S2 ($30.80). Also note how price fell, reversed under S3 and found resistance right on the breakdown-area (S2, nice inverted hammer there). From there on, the stock even went below 30 before buyers came back in.

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