Consolidation

The markets spend the whole day in a tight range, consolidating and digesting the recent move up. We're still not getting the pullback many are expecting here. The longer this consolidation takes place, the better this will be for the bulls.
Oil went up 2% overnight and precious metals also did quite well today. The semi's (SMH) are still getting rejected by the 35-level, this now for the fifth day in a row.

Swingtrades
I closed all my swingtrades on the morning strength, expecting the rally would not last with resistance just above.
Although oil and silver were doing great, I closed EXK and USO as well, happy to take good gains here.
EXK: long 9.49 - closed 9.88 on average (10 was my first target, close enough)
KLAC: long 47.95 - closed 47.76 for a small loss
N: long 28.95 - closed 29.14
SRX: long 28.34 - closed 28.54
PCX: long 25.63 - closed 26.06 on average
USO: long 41.97 - closed 42.34 on average


Mostly small gains (except for KLAC and EXK), but I'm not going to take any more risks for now. More swings will follow when market has given more clues about direction. Still long CHK with loose stop.

Daytrades
One daytrade today: CIEN. In after the bounce from the 9EMA on the 5m-chart. Out partly after a quick pop up on big volume. I left some shares on, in case the stock would regain strength, but unfortunately that didn't happen. Stopped out breakeven on the remaining shares.

Running into resistance

The S&P gapped up and slowly crawled higher until it hit resistance near 1330. The Dow even managed to come close to it's February highs. Gold and silver gapped up with the market but soon reversed, ending the day lower, but well of their lows.

Swingtrades
After scanning my watchlist I found a lot of bullish action and I deceided to put on some swingtrades. But with markets overbought and running into resistance, we need some consolidation. In hindsight, maybe it would have been better to wait for a pullback.

Here they are:
EXK: long 9.49 (PM) - SL8.85
KLAC: long 47.95 - SL46.50
N: long 28.95 - SL28.35
SRX: long 28.34 - SL27.50
PCX: long 25.63 - SL24.55
USO: long 41.97 - SL41.30

Stewie also went for a swingtrade, CHK @34.35 with SL32,00.

Daytrades
Three daytrades: BIIB, FRX and SRZ.

BIIB: in after price bounced on the 5EMA on the 15m-chart and broke the high of the previous bar. The stock based under 72 for more than half an hour. Then price shot up over 72 on big volume, only to drop without warning for over 40 cents in a matter of seconds (also on big volume)! Luckily I already moved up my stoploss, so the loss was still considerable. 5m-chart here:

FRX: in after price bounced from the 9EMA but price was still too far extended from the 20EMA. I should have passed on this one! Thru stoploss, over and out.

SRZ: the stock kept creeping up with support of the 9EMA. In on the break of HOD and moving my stop along. Then price fell thru the 9EMA, touched my stop and bounced on the 20EMA. Out with minor gains, only to see price go thru 12.40 EOD. Ouch...

I was watching CTXS when the 20EMA caught up with price, but I didn't take it. I thought I would wait for a pullback, but that never happened. Too bad, this was a huge winner. Up a dollar or more with a risk of merely 30 cent.

Tech getting exhausted

Markets put in another rally in the morning but reversed midday. Tech stocks gave back most of the gains, which resulted in the Nasdaq ending right on it's 50MA. Most major indexes put in some kind of inverted hammer, not a bullish sign. A small pullback to the 20MA would be healthy.

Swingtrades
Stewies trades entered yesterday, all worked well today. PCX for a small gain, AKAM and RAX for 2% and 3%! Late in the day, we got in IAG, hoping for a bounce in gold over the weekend.

Daytrades
Only one daytrade, SRZ. In when stock bounced closeby the 9EMA and took out the ORH (opening range high). Took partial at R2 and some more under the $12-spot. Got stopped out on the remaining shares. 

Very nice end of the week, just like last Friday by the way. It's starting to get my favorit (trading) day of the week!

Thursday: markets up, bulls gaining strength

Markets gapped up a little bit, went down to bounce on yesterday's close and then rallied again. The Dow and S&P both overcame their 20- and 50MA's, the Nasdaq is still trailing but closed well on somewhat higher volume than the past days (which cannot be said from Dow and S&P).

Markets are putting in a nice V-shape here, so this could be the beginning of a new rally. But therefor the markets need to consolidate for a couple of days and then go higher on some more convincing volume. We're not there yet...

Crude oil is resting near it's intermediate high and could be double topping here. Although not likely, with the problems going on in Libya.

Gold and silver made new highs but then reversed sharply intraday. The euro shot back up towards the 1.42-spot.

Swingtrades
Stewie took on 3 swingtrades (AKAM, PCX and RAX) in the late afternoon, I followed on all 3 and we're holding overnight.

Daytrades
The first daytrade was ROK. In on the break of base after price bounced of the 9EMA. I screwed up an order and accidentally sold 2/3 of my shares. Luckily with a (small) gain and I even managed to buy some back at the same price I sold them. Price couldn't overcome the daily high from the opening range, I then sold partially at the very top of the inverted hammer. The remaining part got stopped out. Without the messed up order, this would have been a good trade, although this setup is not ideal at all.

And same thing can be said from the trade I took in IMAX. Even worse actually. Again I picked out a stock that shot up fast in the opening minutes. First of all, such a violent spike needs consolidation before it can move up again and that takes time, but time wasn't on my side. Secondly, when I bought the stock, the S&P ran into resistance at the 1310-level. Better is not to take that risk and refuse the trade...
I got in on the break of 30, where volume came in. Sadly, there was no follow-thru and suddenly the stock reversed sharply, falling throug my stoploss (some slippage but not to bad) in a matter of seconds.

EBIX was a knife-catch (bottom-picking a stock that's falling fast, up to 5-10% or even more).
The stock fell down >20% on fraud allegations. I went in when price seemed to bounce back from the same level just under 23 (apart from one fake move below). I quickly sold as soon as price shot back up to the 24-level. Small position but not a bad gain. I'm not proud of this trade, it's more like buying a lottery-ticket, I just got lucky here (although I didn't win the jackpot). Here the 1-minute timeframe, all developed in a matter of minutes as you can see. I promised myself not to do this again.

Miss of the day (not talking about female beauty here, sorry guys): HMY. It had some nice follow-thru this morning after yesterday's big gains.
I wanted to go in when 2 hammers formed. For some stupid reason I put in a limit order instead of a market order. I didn't want to chase price, but this was just ridiculous, 1 or 2 cents won't make that much of a difference, even on a $14-stock. As depicted below, I missed out on some very nice gains and a good setup, way better than ROK or IMAX (let's not mention EBIX again...)

I also missed BBY, a couple of minutes after my failed trade in IMAX, maybe that's why. Nice breakdown thru base at S2 ($30.80). Also note how price fell, reversed under S3 and found resistance right on the breakdown-area (S2, nice inverted hammer there). From there on, the stock even went below 30 before buyers came back in.

Bounce from support

And a huge one it was! Market bounced from support (100MA) right at the open, to grind higher thru the day and end strong. Crude, gold, silver were all down, and not recovering as much as most stocks.
Dip buyers still come in the market, so no real panic yet it seems. Still, I can't imagine the market going straight up from here, we'll probably see some lower prices in the next few days.

The dollar rallied sharply during the pre-market selloff, but gave back all of its gains once the market started to rise. Even in these circumstances, the dollar can't hold any gains, so what will happen if the markets starts rallying again?!?

Swingtrades
Regarding my remark concerning TZOO in the previous post, I stand corrected, the stock made a new high today!

I covered 1/2 of my positions in SOA, GMO and NUVA, right at the open. I sold the remaining shares of SOA and GMO a little later on. SOA because it looked too strong and GMO cause it almost hit my target and now started going back up. Good thing I sold, both stocks ended the day much higher and closed very strong!
I kept NUVA since it looked weak. It barely bounced, unlike the market. However, I adjusted the stoploss to 25.55, just above the opening range high and nicely 'in the money'.

The results so far this week for my swingtrades aren't staggering, just near breakeven for now;
PAG: -4.05%
PCX: -5.77%
TZOO: -0.20%
SOA: +3.05%
GMO:  +5.61%
NUVA up 3.7% and still holding half my position.

Daytrades
I missed some great buying opportunities in POT, SLB and XHB. They all shot up at the open, not my style to be buying early in the day with so much volatility going on! I prefer seeing an intraday V-shape and than buy when the time has come (judging how extended price is, volume etc). I gave SLB a try but it felt like I was chasing price so the trade was scratched for a very small loss. Ten minutes later a rather small risk entry came by, but I didn't take it. Price went up with the market afterwards, so another missed opportunity.

2 minute chart for SLB:

Other stocks I almost entered were MCP and INFY, both on bounce from support. MCP I saw too late and I didn't want to chase price. It went down fast and on huge volume, a sign the down move was probably coming to an end. The white circle indicates where I was watching.

What I should have done was stalk the stock for another low risk entry!

INFY rather grinded down and wasn't too extended from the moving averages, so I didn't really trusted the action here. Price rested on the 200MA and after a triple bottom, it started moving higher to close near HOD.

The very first one...

The title already suggested it, this is my very first post on this blog. A blog about trading, about my intake on the markets, my trades, but also about strategies, techniques, influences of other traders etc. In the first place, this will be a journal to me, a tool to review my trades and see which mistakes I make.

First of all, a few words about who I am and what I'm doing here. I started trading several years ago (1998 - the tech-bubble-years...), blew up an account and gave up trading for many years.

A few years back, my interested for trading was revived and I started to educate myself through books, forums, blogs etc. In 2010 I got a big aversion of my 9 to 5 job. All kinds of problems made me lose my motivation. I told my boss he could kiss my... No, I didn't do that, but it crossed my mind ;-)

I had a couple of months to decide what I wanted to do next and could only come up with one thing I really wanted to do. Yes, you guessed right, trading of course.

Easier said than done. There are thousands of ways to earn an income through trading; stocks, options, futures, currencies, bonds... Short-term trading , longer term strategies, investing...

I had to find my thing, my edge. For me, it's swingtrading with a little daytrading on the side (esp. in these choppy times, swingtrading isn't really a 'save' approach...)

I'm a technical trader, fundamentals don't mean sh*t to me. Reading charts to look for setups already takes enough time as it is. Moreover, the technical aspect always ment more to me than the fundamental. Respect for all the Warren Buffets of this world, but it's just not my thing!

Enough of my rambling, next you'll find my trades of Friday, March 12.

Swingtrades (stock, entry price, SL=stop loss)

SOA (short) 22.28 SL22.90

GMO (short) 4.91 SL5.35

PCX (short) 21.90 SL23.15

NUVA (short) 26.29 SL27.75

TZOO (long) 44.60 SL42.00

PAG (long) 20.615 SL19.80

The candles on GMO and PCX don't look very promessing, maybe I'll scratch these Monday-morning. In hindsight, it seems that I'm chasing price on both these trades. They are base and break shorts, but in both cases, price is extended from the short-term moving averages I use (9EMA and 20SMA on the daily chart). I probably had to wait and look for a better entry.

SOA and NUVA are also breakout shorts. They both closed weak and look very promessing.

TZOO and PAG are base and break trades long and both closed strong and with volume.

I'll post profittaking. Stoplosses will be adjusted whenever I feel necessary. I don't want to move my stops too quick, something I still have to learn. One of my rookie mistakes: take profits before my goal is reached, afraid to lose profits. Instead it would be better to let the winners run of course.

However, I do cut my losses when needed. I always use stop losses and only adjust them in the right direction (up for longs, down for shorts). Well, there's always the exception to the rule, as one of my daytrades proves... Ouch!

Daytrades

One of my first trades of the day was in OPEN. It was mentioned in the HCPG-newsletter a few days in a row and on the daily chart it hit 89 for two consecutive days. The previous day closed strong on volume and I expected some follow-thru. And that was exactly what happened. The stock went south in the first minute but than shot up thru 89. I got in at 89.48 and sold partially at 90 and 90.45. Than price came back down.
My big mistake here was to lower my stop to give the stock room to consolidate. I should have kept SL at breakeven or under the shooting star, a clear sign of lower prices to come! I got stopped out when price went thru the former low of the day. Or how a winner turns in to a loser... A rookie mistake.

My second entry however was much better, after price consolidated for 15 minutes and formed a hammer. I got in at 90.22 and sold partial at 90.60. This time I wouldn't make the same mistake and moved my stop near breakeven. Actually, I moved my stop up too fast and got stopped out, almost to the cent. If my stop was 3-5 cents lower I would still be in the trade and got the 91-breakthrough!! However, I didn't feel like entering a third time and I let this great opportunity pass me by. After having almost the perfect entry, I was kicking myself for letting this slip by me!

On the image (mostly 5-minute charts for daytrades) you'll find my long entries (green arrows) and my exits (red).

Another trade I took was CPWM on the break of yesterdays high (11.28). The stock broke out Wednesday on huge volume and had nice folow-thru on Thursday. That probably would have been a better moment to get in, but I thought I might give it a try here. However, today the stock consolidated and I sold near 11.

NOG and CLF where 2 stocks Stewie from Art of trading got in to. I took his entries and both where nice winners (esp. NOG, up +/- 3%). In CLF I again made the mistake to move my stop up too high (also 3 cents, argghh!) and got stopped out, still with a nice gain though.

While going thru my scanlist, JNPR caught my eye. It was consolidating nicely near 42.10 and I got in at the break. Price formed a shooting star on the 15m-chart and I got out whit a 26 cent gain. Not bad, but no home run. I could have sold partially here and kept the stop at breakeven, but in this rather choppy market, I didn't want to take any more risks. Too bad, cause JNPR ended the day strong under 43!

All in all I ended the day with P&L in the green after missing possible bigger winners in OPEN and CLF (and maybe JNPR, but I consider this to be a good trade, compared to the other 2). 2 losers and 4 winners, not bad, but it should have been 1 loser and 5 winners!
The big issues Friday were exits and emotions. I still have to work hard on this. My entries are not bad, it's the exit/stop that makes (or breaks) the trade!