Friday, August 5, 2011

Jobs report can't stop the bleeding

What's there to say, this is a bear market, volatility is huge (for example, VIX was up 25% intraday).

The jobs report came out pre-market, and it was better (less negative?) than expected. So we had a fast upburst that got faded right at the open. Then came a fast flush down, an equal (slow) pullback and another downfall (S&P: 40 points in 1 1/2 hour). Another rip up (a big one now - about 50 points), where the 'rally' stalled. Together with the last hour of the session, the bears came back, sending the market back in the red. Although this time with less conviction and so the bulls gave it another try near the close, also not convincing. End result, we ended near breakeven on the S&P, up 0.5% on the Dow, down 0.8% on Nasdaq and down 1.8% on the Russell.
In the end, still no bounce, but volumes (on index-related ETF's for example) now so high, a reversal seems near.

So, enormous volatility, inherent to a bear market, a 5 minute candle on the S&P being 10 to 20 points.
10 points up, 10 points down in a jify, not for the faint of heart. That's why I stayed out, although tempted a few times.
And to think that often we have a daily candle that is 10 points in range or less. If any trading 'has to be done' here, daytrading is probably best. Not wise to keep open positions with these wild swings going on, and definitely not over the weekend... I've read following advise a lot lately: CASH IS KING!

No comments:

Post a Comment