Thursday, August 4, 2011

Panic attack

Boy, was I wrong yesterday, thinking we hit the bottom. Stocks reversed overnight and made a new low +2 hours in the session. Unfortunately I didn't sell my SPY-calls yesterday, so today I added to them to lower the average cost (normally I wouldn't average down on a loser, but I started small, in case more trouble was underway).
I tried some more bottom-picking with ES-futures (1230) and TNA (61.98). Both got stopped out resp. 1226 & 60) and I tried again when the market puked some more near 1212 on BIG volume. And yes, that was A low (though not THE low). In on 1214.75 and trying to hold on to this winner as long as possible. I was looking for 1240-1245 on this one, but was stopped out per 1219.25. Tried once more later on; long 1219.25, stopped out 1216.25. So only a dead cat bounce intraday and revisiting the lows in the afternoon.

Of course, with indices down about +4.5%, there was little green on the screens. In fact, silver and oil plunged big time (6-7% intraday). Gold fell back from it's highs, but was still looking ok.

We're now down about 150 points on the S&P500 in only 10 sessions. That's a 11% move. Impossible to predict where this will end, but I won't try anymore shorts here. My initial short on the futures worked well but I suffered a medium loss on the bottompicking longs. Closed my SPY-calls as well with a considerable loss. All out now and waiting for a shortable bounce with good risk-reward. Will probably take a couple of days/weeks.

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