Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Another Downday But A Good Close

Another downday, the second in a row. No real harm done just yet, with volume so and so. But volume is not always a good indicator or the only thing to watch. What concerns me is that the Dow is making a lower high and the (second attempt) breakout in small caps has failed. These might be the first signs that a correction is coming soon.

I'm not going short here or saying to do so. But taking on new longs right now, is playing with fire imho. I'm certainly watching the trendline for the Dow (see daily charts) which is tested a few times the last couple of days. If this breaks, start looking for possible confirmation in other indices.

The good news is we had a strong close, so most indices closed up well from the lows. Bulls need to push some more tomorrow, to keep this rally going.

5m-chart SPY:

Daily charts DIA, SPY, QQQ and IWM:

Euro, oil, metals
Oil and metals got a beating today, the euro on the other hand traded near breakeven.

I sold another 20% of SNTS @5.81, stop-loss on remaining 20% is 5.62

I also tried some 'bottomfishing' in SPY today. Bought (on average) at 140.65 an sold 140.48.
The second try was barely better. After a quick sell-off on volume, I went long @139.87. I moved my stop just above BE on a spike higher to 140.20. Later on, I got stopped out @139.93.

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